Both Russia’s and China’s influence is now felt not only in the Indo-Pacific region or in Central and Eastern Europe, but also in Africa and South America. NATO’s policy papers and communiques reflect this endeavor that should be further implemented. The European and North American allies have vested interests and should promote a balanced approach in all these areas.

The global expansion of China’s political, economic and military influence.

Conflicts as sources of instability, irregular migration and the export of terrorism in Europe’s south and southeast.

The threat posed by Russia and Belarus to the alliance’s eastern flank from the Arctic to the Black and Mediterranean seas, particularly at the eastern borders of Poland and the Baltic states, but also in the North Atlantic.

NATO needs to focus, in a 2030 perspective and beyond, on three main areas: The conventional and hybrid threats and challenges that the alliance must withstand in all domains (land, maritime, air, cyber and space) have become largely global. NATO’s strength, endurance and success is based on shared democratic values and on the unity, determination and ability of allies to focus, adapt and respond jointly to an increasing variety of risks and dangers. The exchange of information between allies and appropriate strategic communication are of paramount importance. NATO allies should demonstrate a firm commitment and a readiness to deter and defend. Moscow and Minsk demonstrated, so far, their willingness to escalate. The escalating tensions at Ukraine’s borders and NATO’s and the EU’s eastern borders could degenerate into wider conflict. The allies need to demonstrate unity and solidarity - not to submit to threats and blackmail - and ensure that Lukashenko’s regime fails to achieve its goal of destabilizing the Baltic countries and Poland. The deployment of more Russian forces to Belarus, on Ukraine’s northern border, and the launch of a decisive operation against Ukraine could be just a matter of time. The Kremlin has deployed large contingents repeatedly toward Ukraine’s eastern and northeastern borders, and has increased its military posture in occupied Crimea. Ukraine is under Russia’s permanent political, military and economic pressure.

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